eMarketer Drops Snap’s Global Ad Revenue Estimates by $126 Million, Citing Slow Growth

Meanwhile, Instagram will roar

eMarketer has lowered its projections for Snapchat twice this year. Getty Images
Headshot of Lauren Johnson

Amid concerns about Snapchat’s growth potential, research firm eMarketer is lowering its predictions for Snap’s global revenue from $900 million to $774.1 million, equivalent to $125.9 million.

“Despite all of its improvements in ad products and measurement, Snapchat remains in the experimental bucket for many marketers,” wrote eMarketer in the report. “They give it high marks for its creative possibilities and its ability to attract a youth audience, but many have yet to make it a must-buy.”

The new forecast is the second time that eMarketer has cut Snapchat’s revenue outlook this year. In October 2016, eMarketer expected for Snap to bring in $935.5 million before it was re-pegged at $900 million in March.

As part of the new expectations, the projection for Snap’s U.S. business—where it makes the bulk of its money—have also decreased. Per eMarketer, Snap is on track to bring in $642.5 million in U.S. revenue this year, down from $770 million in March. In July 2016, eMarketer expected Snapchat to generate $805 million within the U.S.

By 2019, Snap’s U.S. revenues will bring in $2 billion, down slightly from the $2.2. billion eMarketer predicted in March. Meanwhile, Instagram will eclipse Snapchat in ad revenue this year—making $3 billion in the U.S. and $6.84 billion by 2019.

Next year, Snap will overtake Twitter in U.S. revenue, making $1.18 billion compared to Twitter’s $1.16 billion. And by 2019, “Snapchat will pull well ahead, with U.S. ad revenues that will nearly double Twitter’s,” wrote eMarketer.

Since going public this spring, Snap has struggled to meet Wall Street’s expectations in terms of growing its users base and revenue fast enough to fend off Facebook and Instagram. Most recently, the app launched 3-D sponsored lenses to stay a step ahead, with Bud Light and Warner Bros. designing the first ads.

@laurenjohnson lauren.johnson@adweek.com Lauren Johnson is a senior technology editor for Adweek, where she specializes in covering mobile, social platforms and emerging tech.